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Brexit - The Art Of The Bad Deal

by Chauncey Tinker – 10 Dec 2017

In the previous post “Brexit – The Art Of The No Deal”, I was talking about the possibility of a “no deal” scenario which seemed to be becoming increasingly likely at that point. Now suddenly we are faced with a “deal” that an awful lot of Leavers are very unhappy about. In a desperate attempt to appease the failing EU, May seems to have crossed quite a few red lines or as Jacob Rees-Mogg put it – her red lines have turned pink. The full implications of this deal have yet to sink in, so this is just a post to hopefully get a debate going. Please add any other objections and of course your own opinions in the comments below, but I here list my concerns.

A BACK DOOR IMMIGRATION ROUTE THROUGH IRELAND

Ireland may not be part of the Schengen area, but Ireland seems currently hell-bent on turning Ireland into another third world country. For example according to the following article 80,000 visas were granted in a single year 2012 and the most represented country in that statistic was India, and also in the top 5 were Nigeria and Turkey. Why? Why does Ireland need 100s of thousands of people from these countries? This is a country of only 4.75 million people (2016). Also, 25,000 people were granted citizenship and 96,700 requests to remain were granted to non-EU citizens in the same year according to this from thejournal.ie:

Immigration in Ireland: Approximately 88,000 visa applications received in 2012

Ireland may not be a major people smuggling route into the UK today, but people smugglers scarcely need to go the long way round at the moment – they can get in quite easily enough through the front door. The back door will become the route of choice when we finally manage to close the front door.

For me the biggest reason for voting Leave was to enable the UK to regain control of our borders. This deal leaves us with no control over the border with Ireland. My concern is not with customs barriers and trade tariffs it is with people barriers. We are facing a human tsunami from the third world that will change our way of life forever and we are going to have to get very tough with border security if we are to have a hope of keeping it in check. Until Ireland also recovers its sanity we must have a hard border with Ireland. Whether there is a hard border in between Eire and Northern Ireland I don’t care but failing that hard border being set up then the rest of the UK must have a hard border with Northern Ireland.

Furthermore the EU is trying to bully EU countries into accepting a quota of migrants. From the Express:

EU bullies are forcing proud countries out of the Union, says TIM NEWARK

Ireland will no doubt be under the exact same pressure and could come under even greater pressure in future – millions are waiting to cross into Europe.

We need to boot out the open borders activists currently running the country and start to introduce genuine border security as soon as possible. Every day this becomes more difficult to accomplish politically due to the continuing numbers of arrivals who will tend to vote for pro-immigration parties in the future.

EUROPEAN COURT OF JUSTICE JURISDICTION

One of the many problems we have with the EU is the obstacles that have been placed in the way of deporting dangerous foreign nationals. It looks as though that problem may continue for a further 8 years under the terms of this deal.

Lets just remind ourselves of some of these problems:

From the Daily Telegraph:

EU rules stopped Britain deporting murderers, rapists and violent criminals

From the Express:

‘We can’t even deport convicted criminals!’ Tory MP rubbishes fears over EU nationals

Quote from the above article:

… the Home Affairs Select Committee criticised the Government’s failure to remove the equivalent of a “small town” of foreign offenders remaining in the UK’s prisons and communities.

Nigel Farage said on LBC:

“… you find out that actually the European Court of Justice and I quote from the document ‘will remain the ultimate arbiter of the rights of EU citizens’ [in the UK] and that goes on for a further eight years.”

See the full article here:

Nigel Farage’s Scathing Attack On Theresa May’s “Pathetic” Brexit Deal

When people go abroad to foreign countries they should expect to be subject to the laws of those countries they visit, and the same should apply to foreign nationals who come to the UK. We still have one of the best and fairest justice systems in the world, so they have nothing to fear.

STILL IN THE SINGLE MARKET AND CUSTOMS UNION

There seems to a consensus right across the political spectrum of UK media that the deal effectively will not mean leaving the single market and customs union.

From the Independent:

But the joint text she signed up to just minutes earlier pledged that the entire UK would “maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union” where they were applicable to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The full article:

Theresa May’s Brexit deal ‘hard to reconcile’ with UK leaving the single market and customs union, EU says

From Breitbart:

… Mrs. May is heading in the direction of a Single Market exit in name only, with Britain agreeing to continue adopting the same rules and regulations as the EU under cover of protecting the open border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

The full article:

‘Pathetic’ - Appeaser Theresa Makes Heavy Concessions on Money, Regulatory Alignment, and the EU Court as Brexit Deal Struck

THE TWO YEAR TRANSITION PERIOD

I don’t remember voting for a 2-year transition period. Quite what the necessity for this transition period is supposed to be I don’t know. From where I’m standing it simply looks like a further attempt by the EU to keep us in the EU and PAYING to be in the EU as long as possible. Perhaps we do need a transition period but nobody seems to be able to make a good argument as to why.

Why was the leave period set at 2 years in the article 50 wording, why was it not set at 4 years if 4 years are needed to leave the EU? The truth is that nobody knows how soon we could fully leave the EU if we really put our minds to it, but we do know that it could take 20-100 years if we don’t really try very hard. It took less time to mobilize for war before WWII to put this 4 year period in perspective (a huge change of focus and pace for industry), and all we are planning to do on leaving the EU is continue producing and trading goods exactly as we were doing before. The EU Withdrawal Bill is supposed to be going to simply copy/paste all the laws across into UK law so we will at least initially (according to May’s plan) be continuing broadly to do what we were doing before. The only extra things to do might be to set up some UK based regulatory bodies to replace the EU ones, and to make some changes to security and customs at the borders.

Nigel Farage also said that we will be unable to negotiate any new trade deals with other countries on the world stage during the transition period. I think this is a very strong argument for rejecting the transition period if so. What I think is holding us back here is very simply fear of the unknown, but I think in the case of leaving the EU we have nothing at all to fear and everything to look forward to.

WHAT NEXT?

Michael Gove points out that we still live in a democracy apparently. From the BBC:

Brexit: Michael Gove says UK voters can change final deal

Quotes:

“nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” at the end of the process

“If the British people dislike the arrangement that we have negotiated with the EU, the agreement will allow a future government to diverge.”

Gove’s statement, from the Daily Telegraph (premium):

The British people will be in control if they dislike the Brexit deal

The Express informs us that there will be cabinet talks on 19th December on the future relationship with the EU. Quote:

Just five current Cabinet ministers - Boris Johnson, David Davis, Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Penny Mordaunt - voted to leave the EU last year. The other 15 all backed Remain …

End of hard Brexit? Theresa May orders Cabinet to come up with plan - and 15 voted Remain

CONCLUSION

On the basis of all this it is my personal opinion that this is a very bad deal and aspects of it will have to be undone for the reasons I give. No doubt I have not covered every problem with the deal here but these problems are large enough in my mind to call for its rejection. If we reject this deal later then that means that any trade deals that are agreed on as part of this deal will also have to be re-negotiated after those bad aspects are undone. Better then to rip the deal up now and start again.

We should have just walked away from the negotiating table and waited for the EU to come to us. Is this deal so bad that we should press for a change in the Tory leadership now, or should we wait for the next election? I am personally in two minds about that, especially as another change in leadership might result in calls for yet another general election. The risks of an even further reduced Conservative representation might outweigh the chance of getting a better leadership. Failing a leadership change we have to get it through to the leadership somehow that the deal is not acceptable.

ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO BREXIT:

Invoke Clause 61 of Magna Carta

Brexit By Judicial Review

RELATED POSTS:

Brexit – The Art Of The No Deal

(by Chauncey Tinker)

Brexit and Ireland – Borders and Sticking Plasters

(by British Awakening)

Brexit Or Did They Forget-About-It?

(by Seymour Clare)

It might sound a little bit like “I told you so”, but if people were right in the past maybe they have a better claim to be listened to than those who were urging us to accept May’s “strong and stable” leadership (OK, I’m telling you that I told you so). Here are my blog posts on May during the leadership contest last year:

Theresa May - The Most Worst Candidate

Theresa May - The Most Worst Candidate - Extra

Theresa May - The Most Worst Candidate - Extra 2

What do you think? Please leave a comment below.

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